Ukraine’s Abandoned Nuclear Arsenal and Taiwan’s Failed Nuclear Ambitions: The Cold Reality of International Relations
Hello, today we’ll explore the complex and often ruthless reality of international relations through two examples: Ukraine’s decision to relinquish its nuclear weapons and Taiwan’s unsuccessful attempt to develop them. These stories highlight the critical importance of concrete guarantees and capabilities, proving that mere words and promises are insufficient in the international arena.
1. Ukraine: The Trap of “Assurance”
In 1991, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine possessed the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal. However, it relinquished these weapons in exchange for assurances from the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom regarding its territorial integrity and the non-use of force. This agreement is known as the Budapest Memorandum.
The problem is that an “assurance” is a political promise without legal binding force. While a broken assurance may invite moral condemnation or political pressure, it is difficult to enforce actual sanctions. In contrast, a “guarantee” is a formal treaty under international law, obligating the signatories to fulfill their legal obligations. NATO’s collective defense clause, where an attack on one member is considered an attack on all, exemplifies a guarantee.
Ukraine should have sought a guarantee rather than an assurance in exchange for its nuclear weapons. Like the U.S.-ROK Mutual Defense Treaty, it should have secured a solid guarantee with ratification by the U.S. Senate, giving it the same legal force as U.S. domestic law. But reality differed, and Ukraine now feels the harsh limitations of an assurance as it faces Russian aggression.
Key Summary:
- Assurance: A political promise without legal binding force. Non-compliance is difficult to enforce.
- Guarantee: A formal treaty under international law. Carries legal obligations, and violation can brand a nation as a contract breaker in the international community.
Lesson: It is dangerous to relinquish critical assets based solely on assurances in international relations. Secure solid guarantees.
2. Taiwan: Nuclear Ambitions Thwarted
Taiwan attempted to develop nuclear weapons in response to China’s nuclear program, but it was ultimately forced to abandon its efforts due to pressure from the United States. After China’s successful nuclear test in 1964, Chiang Kai-shek secretly initiated nuclear development through the “Project Shen-Zhou” and “Project Tao-yuan”. He even recruited Israeli nuclear experts and smuggled uranium from South Africa and nuclear reactor materials from Canada.
By the 1980s, Taiwan had acquired the technical capability to produce nuclear weapons, but it lacked delivery systems such as missiles to carry the warheads. A crucial blow came from an internal betrayal. Chang Hsien-yi, deputy director of the Chungshan Institute of Science and Technology, defected to the United States and exposed Taiwan’s nuclear program. As a result, the United States threatened to invalidate the “Six Assurances” if Taiwan did not halt its nuclear development.
Although Taiwan had a mutual defense treaty with the United States, its nuclear umbrella was weakened by the U.S.’s “One China” policy. Taiwan sought to secure its survival independently, but its nuclear program was thwarted by strong U.S. pressure and internal betrayal. Taiwan continues to face security challenges under China’s threat.
Key Summary:
- Background: Threat from China’s nuclear program, security concerns due to the U.S.’s “One China” policy.
- Process: Secret nuclear development initiatives (Project Shen-Zhou, Project Tao-yuan), successful acquisition of technology.
- Outcome: U.S. pressure due to internal betrayal, abandonment of nuclear development.
Lesson: Without strength, it is difficult to survive independently in international relations. Despite efforts to maintain strict secrecy, it is extremely difficult to prevent infiltration by intelligence agencies.
Conclusion:
The stories of Ukraine and Taiwan illustrate the harsh and ruthless nature of international relations. Words and promises are not enough. Without the strength and ability to defend oneself, a country can be sacrificed at any time based on the interests of other nations. The importance of contracts should not be overlooked. Nobody pays attention when things are going well, but when problems arise, the reality is that they start looking for clauses in the contract to shift responsibility to the other party. Therefore, in international relations, it is crucial to secure solid guarantees and continuously build the strength to defend oneself.
Finally, remember the saying, “You can correct a person with a bad temper, but it’s dangerous to work with someone you can’t trust.” Choose trustworthy partners carefully in international relations, and continually strive to build your own strength.
