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Regulation of exports to South Korea was aimed at by the Moon Jae-in government. However, due to the pressure of the United States and the turmoil at home and abroad, it has become harder to see the “end”. What is the exit strategy for Japan?
Which way will the Abe government go? According to the original schedule, the public opinion polls asking whether to exclude Korea from the whitelist (export control preferential treatment) country by July 24th was over, so we had to go to the next stage. According to the Japanese side, more than 10,000 citizens have sent a favor. If so, the next step is to open each of the cabinet meetings and determine the ‘whitelist exclusion from Korea’. After three weeks (21 days), Korea will lose its benefits as a whitelist nation. The ‘three-year comprehensive approval’ for the large number of items exported from Japan to Korea will disappear and the ‘individual approval system’ (examination and approval for each export case) will work. Actual export controls. The regulation on exports of semiconductors and displays, which have been implemented since July 4, has been a ‘tasting’.

As of July 25, the Abe government has not been willing to compromise on schedule. On July 24, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry, Seiko Hiroshige, reaffirmed his intention to pursue the process of “exclusion of Korea.”

At present, however, it is difficult to grasp Abe ‘s sincerity in a transparent manner. It is hard to know for sure whether the process of eliminating the whitelist from Korea or pushing for concessions in Korea is very difficult. Even if ‘Korea exclusion’ is actually decided, its implementation is three weeks later. There may be some change in the situation. You can decide to do it and then withdraw it. However, there are many observers who feel that the atmosphere in Japan is down. What remains of the Abe government is the opinion that it is a “shaped exit strategy.”

match. Confrontation between the South Korea and Japan. Republic of Korea, japanese national flags on Boxing gloves. Sports competition between the two countries. Concept foreign policy conflict.

The Abe government’s “exclusion from Korea” strategy was once brisk. It is by the US Trump government.

John Bolton, a White House security advisor, visited Tokyo on July 22. It was two days before the deadline (July 24th) for convergence of public opinion on ‘exclusion from Korea’. Bolton met with Shotaro Yachi, secretary general of the Japan National Security Council (NSC), Foreign Minister Konodaro and Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya. In the press, the conversation with foreign minister Konodaro was introduced in a relatively detailed way. On July 24, the Kyodo News Agency said, “The Japanese government does not want the US to intervene (on the whitelist),” and the US said, “There is no intention to actively engage in bilateral relations. “He said. They are overly ritual rituals. The story that can be read in the line is rather meaningful. Bolton said he “urged the resolution of the parties,” at a meeting with Kono, worrying that “(recent events between Korea and Japan) could have an adverse effect on Korea-US-Japan solidarity for the denuclearization of North Korea.” In response, Kyodo said, “It is a statement with the following meaning. “It should not happen that the United States must move.”

According to Japanese sources, President Trump has even delivered a more direct message to Abe’s government through Bolton.

The first is, ‘Do not exclude Korea from the whitelist.’ It sounds like a story that you should not cause any disruption as a normal problem. The second point is that the Japanese Self Defense Forces are also involved in the US government ‘s plan to co – operate with the Hormuz Strait Coalition.

On July 1, President Trump remained silent as Japan and the United States announced a tightening of the dispute between Japan and Korea. He announced his position on July 19 (US time). “There was a request from the president, who was involved in the conflict between Korea and Japan. I hope they (Koreans and Japan) will be able to solve themselves, but they will be willing to help if they want to. “He also said that” I will help if the two countries ask for it. ”

However, President Trump moved very quickly. Bolton, who has been in office for the past two years, has said that he would like to see Bolton as a special envoy in both countries. He pointed out that Bolton is currently working on a cooperation structure between the South, the North and the US to denuclearize North Korea and that Korea and the United States are pursuing ROK-US joint military exercises to transfer wartime operational control. , And that “it is not desirable for the ROK and Japan to fight in the US Northeast Asian context.”

korea japan combat-2

Bolton, a special envoy to the United States, is also looking forward to sending his aide. Bolton has been a bridge between Trump and Washington liquor. In the case of the North Korean nuclear issue, Japan also represented a hard-line attitude in Washington. Before Bolton, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State David Stillwell proposed a Korea-US-Japan high-level consultation in Tokyo to mediate between Korea and Japan. It seems that the Abe government dispatched Bolton, which can not be ignored, as a limited number of firefighters.

Bolton needs to turn his attention to South Korea and Japan with his Iran issue, which is his concern. As a part of his hard-line policy toward Iran, he has been pushing for the Hormuz Strait. The Japanese Self Defense Forces are also interested in sending troops to the Hormuz Strait. With the revision of the Security Legislation in the fall of 2015, it was possible to exercise collective self-defense rights based on logistical support, Therefore, the Japanese Self Defense Forces in the proposal of Bolton is said to have the atmosphere like ‘water meet meat’. Mr. Trump’s high-mindedness is the moment when Bolton, who is interested in dispatching Hormuz from Korea-Japan conflict, is put into Japan as a firefighter.

Inside Japan, which was struggling with the backward winds rather than the effects of export regulation on Korea, was complicated by overlapping US variables. Although the Self Defense Forces will be welcomed immediately to dispatch Hormuz, public opinion of the general public is not good. If I reject the message of Trump and put a precipitation of exclusion in Korea on the whitelist, the Abe government has too many and complicated fronts. There is even worry about the regime. However, I have been dragging the plate so far, but it is hard to be overwhelmed.

The best scenario for the Abe government is the surrender of the government. Therefore, for the time being, it is necessary to take a gesture to exclude Korea from whitelisting. If the conservative media in Korea or so-called experts in Japan exclude from the whitelist, how hard it will be for Korea to work hard to promote it. However, the current situation in Japan is difficult to reach. That’s why we talk about ‘exit view strategy.’

The Abe government has already said that it is divided into strong onions. Those classified as hard-wired are the Cabinet Office, the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s Department of Trade Administration, and some departments of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. On the other hand, the history issue should be judged according to the history issue, but there is moderate wave to stop trade measures such as export regulation on Korea. These are the regional economic departments of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (MOCIE), which is similar to the Japanese Embassy of Japan (Federation of Economic Organizations), which has expressed concern over the export control measures of the Abe government, There is also a ‘Korean room’ in charge of regional economy. Initially, the Korean government was to take charge of export regulation, but the opposition is getting worse in the process.

The current river on-wave scheme is on the verge of enforcing export regulations in early July. The most important group in the process of export regulation is the Cabinet Office. Chief Cabinet Secretary Sugaya Yoshihide is a key figure. Apparently, Prime Minister Abe seems to be the center of the Cabinet, but it is an open secret that Abe is only a scarecrow and that Chief Cabinet Secretary Suka is in fact a prime minister in Japan’s power. Chief Cabinet Secretary Suh Dae-jung said that export regulation was also led by the poor feeling about Korea. Since the ruling of the Supreme Court last year in October, Abe has been in a state of “let’s go to Korea” since early this year. It is said that it started work in earnest from April.

An unusual event occurred in Japanese politics at the time. It is the visit of Mr. Suga to Washington from May 9 to 12. Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe is in charge of Japan ‘s internal affairs. I am reluctant to travel long distances to leave for a long time. As a result, it was common for Suga to say that he began his diplomatic career with the prime minister in mind when public popularity began to rise as he announced his early years in early April. But in fact, there was a purpose that was even more important. It was necessary to seek consent of the mainstream of Washington prior to beating Korea. During the visit, Suga met with Deputy Defense Minister Patrick Shannahan, Secretary of State Pompeii and Vice President Mike Fence. After the ruling of the Supreme Court in the Republic of Korea, Japan was asking for help in trying to take countermeasures against South Korea’s attitude.

However, he did not tell us specifically about what measures to take. He said he only informed him that he was doing good for normal security management (export control). In other words, the Trump government did not know at the time what the Abe government would take.

President Trump traveled to Japan to attend the ceremonies of the May 25-28 dawn ceremony that took place after his visit to Washington. At that time, Prime Minister Abe was trying to take action against South Korea. However, President Trump did not give a positive answer at the end of the Japanese request. Trump and the US State Department, which had been focusing on solving the nuclear issue between South Korea, The US State Department has also issued a statement stating that Japan has fought against South Korea ‘s strategic material management.

Anyway, the Abe government decided to acquire Washington main liquor, and the government prepared the export control measures in the form that the Cabinet Office became the main axis and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry took over the duty. The Foreign Ministry was excluded from the process. The work of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (MOCT), which is responsible for the export and management of strategic goods, Thus, we will select three core materials for semiconductors and display panels, the most important part of the Korean economy, and announce the first measures on July 1.

It was the Moon Jaein government and Samsung that aimed at Japan at this time. In other words, when Japan attacked, it was said that some extreme right-wing media in Korea and the free Korean government could stand up and put the government of Moon Jae-in into the corner. If we could change the regime in such a way, we would be willing to do so.

However, the execution process was too poor to carry out this huge goal in reality. The Japanese practitioners thought that it was Korea ‘s best place and selected three core materials, but they did not have a deep discussion with the Japanese businessmen. It would not have been easy for the Abe government to catch up with the international “supply chain” of high-tech products such as semiconductors and displays. It is very likely that the strategy of many items to be checked, such as the possibility of boomerang or a substitute for Japanese companies, can be easily obtained.

The claims of conservative media and some experts who presuppose that “if Japan does what it does,” it may also be unfounded. It was a situation that the Gwangdangryun, who resented the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, poured criticism continuously through the Nihon Keizai Shimbun.

In the end, unlike the original goal of the Abe government to impose a regime change in the opposition party by hitting the Moon Jaein government, the government’s approval rating rises and the free Korean government is stuck in a pro-Japanese frame. The Abe government has taken steps that would be a catalyst for the declination of Korean companies. This has reduced the international credibility of Japanese materials industry.

The Abe government has no reason to drag out the measures. Maybe I just have to get out of shape. It is best if the Moon Jae-in government dispatches a special envoy and shows him how to compromise in any way. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan recently released some media reports that it can be considered as a solution to the compulsory dispute settlement problem by examining the “1 + 1 + 1 solution” (Japanese companies, Korean companies, to be. However, it is unlikely that the Korean government will accept that the Japanese government will be left out and the Korean government will be the subject of compensation. If it did not happen, it would be because the Korean people’s awareness of Japan has increased.


安倍政府はどちらに行くか。当初予定通りなら、7月24日までに韓国をホワイトリスト(輸出管理の優遇措置)国から排除するかどうか問う国民世論収斂が終わったので、次のステップにいくした。日本側推計では、1万人以上の市民が賛成の意思を送ってきたという。次に、次のステップは、各の(閣議の)を開き、「ホワイトリストで韓国排除」を決定するための手順である。その後3週間(21日)後から韓国はホワイトリスト国家として享受利益を喪失することになる。日本で韓国に輸出する多数の項目に対する「3年単位包括承認」のメリットが消えて「個別承認システム(輸出はあまり審査と許可を受けなければなら)」が作動することになる。事実上の輸出規制だ。 7月4日から実行された半導体とディスプレイの3つの主要な材料の輸出規制は、「お誘い」だったわけだ。

match. Confrontation between the South Korea and Japan. Republic of Korea, japanese national flags on Boxing gloves. Sports competition between the two countries. Concept foreign policy conflict.

7月25日現在、安倍政府は予定通り強行するという意志を曲げずにいる。 7月24日にもセコ広重経済産業大臣が「韓国排除」の手続きを踏んという方針を再確認した。

しかし、現時点で安倍政府の心中を透明に把握そういえば難しい。本当に韓国をホワイトリストから排除するための手順を強行するか、あるいは韓国の譲歩を狙って圧力を加えるか明確にアルギン難しい。 「韓国排除」は、実際に決定されるとしても、その実行は3週間後だ。その間にいくつかの情勢の変化が発生することもできる。実行することを決定したが撤回することもできるだろう。ただし、日本の雰囲気波折れと見る観測者も多い。安倍政府に残ったのは「形のある出口戦略」という意見も出ている。


ジョン・ボルトン米ホワイトハウス安保補佐官が東京を訪れた日は7月22日である。 「韓国排除」関連国民世論収斂の締め切り(7月24日)から二日前だった。ボルトンは谷内正太郎日本の国家安全保障会議(NSC)事務局長と河野太郎外相、このよ武防衛長官など外交安保の核心人物をすべて会った。メディアには、河野太郎外相に会った話が比較的詳しく紹介された。 7月24日共同通信は「日本政府は(ホワイトリストから韓国排除について)米国の仲裁を望んでいない」との見方を明らかにし、これに対して、米国は「韓日関係について、積極的な仲裁医師がない旨で述べた」と報じた。過度に儀礼的な捜査である。行間から読み取ることができる話ではなく意味を持っている。ボルトンは河野との出会いで、「(最近韓日間事態が)北朝鮮の非核化のための韓・米・日の連帯に悪影響を与えることができる」と憂慮し、「当事国間の解決を促す」したという。これに対して共同通信は、次のような意味を込めた発言だと説明した。 「米国が動かなければならない事態がボルオジョソはならない。」



去る7月1日、日本の輸出規制の発表で韓日間の紛争が激化ていた20日近くトランプ大統領は沈黙を守った。彼は彼の立場を明らかにしたのは、7月19日(米国現地時間)である。 「韓日葛藤に関するムン・ジェイン大統領の要請があった。彼ら(韓国と日本)が自分で解決できることを望んでいるが必要な場合は喜んで助ける。 “これとともに「両国の要請があれば助ける」と言ったので、「日本の要請がない限り、出ない」という意味に解釈された。



ボルトンはボルトン通り自分の関心事であるとの問題で韓国と日本の興味を回す必要がある。イランに対する強硬策の一環として、ホルムズ海峡派兵を推進してきた、そのとして韓日間の衝突があまり望ましくないものである。日本の自衛隊もホルムズ海峡派兵に関心が多い。 2015年秋安保法制改正で後方支援を名分にした集団的自衛権行使が可能となったが、実戦の機会がなかった。したがってボルトンの提案に日本の自衛隊は、「水を得た魚」のような雰囲気とする。韓日葛藤よりホルムズ派兵に関心が多いボルトンを対日消防士に投入したトランプ大統領の高段者目が光を放つ瞬間だ。

korea japan combat-3













安倍政府として今回の措置は、もはや集めていく実益がない。形良く抜けていくことだけ残っているかもしれない。ムン・ジェイン政府が特使も派遣して、どのようにでも妥協する姿を見せてくれれば最高だ。日本外務省が最近、いくつかのメディアを介して強制的に徴用賠償問題解決に「1 + 1 + 1の解決法(日本の企業、韓国企業、韓国政府の資金出資による解法)」であれば検討することができるというふうに流すのがまさにその内容ある。しかし、日本政府は抜けてしまって、韓国政府が、賠償主体になりなさいということを韓国政府が受け入れる可能性はほとんどない。このようなことがなかったら分からない、すでに韓国国民の対日警戒心が高まるよう高まったためである。

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